Another dust bowl?

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Why could a new Dust Bowl drought occur?

The low-level jet stream — a fast-moving current of winds close to the Earth’s surface — travels from east to west across the Atlantic, then typically curves northward as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, bringing moisture to the Great Plains.

Abnormal sea-surface temperatures have caused this low-level jet stream to continue westward and to weaken, which is preventing much-needed moisture from reaching the agriculturally critical region.

The shift in the jet stream is also allowing a southerly flow from Mexico to bring much drier air northward into the Plains.

Besides dramatically reducing precipitation for the region, the changes brought about by the abnormal sea-surface temperatures will also result in higher surface temperatures in the Plains.

“When surfaces are wet, energy from solar radiation both evaporates moisture and heats the ground,” said AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams. “When no moisture is present, all that energy is channeled toward heating the ground, and the warm-er ground heats the lower atmosphere.

“The combination of low moisture and higher temperatures would be a crippling one-two punch for the Great Plains should these conditions persist, much like what occurred during the Dust Bowl drought.”

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